We assess that the majority of UAP sightings in the earlier decades of UAP investigations were the result of misidentification of ordinary phenomena and objects, based on AARO’s findings of its own cases to date and the findings of all past investigatory efforts. However, we assess that some portion of these misidentifications almost certainly were a result of the surge in new technologies that observers would have understandably reported as UFOs.
Along with these systems, a broad and varying technology industry emerged along with a network of highly secretive national laboratories across the United States to support these efforts. AARO’s review of Project BLUE BOOK cases shows a spike in reported UAP sightings from 1952 à 1957 and another spike in 1960 s1National Archives and Records Administration; National Archives and Records Administration; National Archives and Records Administration; Department of the Air Force, Project Blue Book, (February 1, 1966), USAF; Hector Quintanilla, Jr., “ The Investigation of UFOs,” Studies in Intelligence, Vol. 10, No. 4 (Fall 1966), pp. 95-110; Hector Quintanilla, Jr., “UFOs: An Air Force Dilemma” (unpublished manuscript, 1974); Hector Quintanilla, Jr., “UFOs: An Air Force Dilemma” (unpublished manuscript, 1974); Edward J. Ruppelt, The Report on Unidentified Flying Objects (Doubleday, 1956); Gerald K. Haines, “CIA's Role in the Study of UFOs, 1947-90,” Studies in Intelligence, Vol. 1, No. 1. These reporting spikes most likely are attributed to observers unknowingly having witnessed new technological advancements and testing and reporting them as UFOs. The below examples represent formerly classified and sensitive programs that involved thousands of test flights, rocket launches, and extensive experimentation which AARO assess most likely were the cause of many UAP reports. AARO assesses that this common and understandable occurrence—the misidentification of new technologies for UAP— is present today, such as in cases where rocket exhaust plumes, micro-satellite trains, and UAS systems with odd morphologies are reported as UAP.
The below examples represent a sample of the unclassified and declassified authentic national security programs that AARO assesses probably were associated with erroneous UAP reporting:
The U.S. effort to build an atomic bomb, the Manhattan Project, was named after the location of its initial offices in what became known as the Manhattan Engineer District at 270 Broadway, Manhattan, New York City. General Leslie R. Groves, head of the project, followed the custom of naming the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers’ districts after the city in which they were located s2Department of Energy (DoE), Leslie Groves, Now It Can Be Told (Harper, 1962). Richard Rhodes, The Making of the Atomic Bomb (Simon and Shuster, 1986), Kai Bird and Martin J. Sherwin. The secrecy surrounding the Manhattan Project and the establishment of several other national laboratories, such as Los Alamos National Laboratories, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Sandia National Laboratories, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, and Oak Ridge National Laboratory to support this effort probably contributed to the spike in reported UAP s3Department of Energy (DoE); Leslie Groves, Now It Can Be Told (Harper, 1962); Richard Rhodes, The Making of the Atomic Bomb (Simon and Shuster, 1986)..
The V-173 aircraft flew for the first time on 23 Monday s4Norman Polmar, “The Pancake that Didn't Fly,” Naval History Magazine, Volume 33, Number 3, (June 2019). It was believed that maintaining a uniform airflow over the wingspan—or “pancake” fuselage—would allow the aircraft to take off and land at exceptionally low speeds without sacrificing high-speed performance qualities that appealed to the USN for its fighter aircraft s5National Air and Space Museum; Norman Polmar, “The Pancake that Didn't Fly,” Naval History Magazine, Volume 33, Number 3, (June 2019). The V-173 could take off vertically, had a circular wing 23.3 feet in diameter, and could almost hover. The XF5U-1’s design was largely similar to the V-173. However, the USN cancelled the project in 1948 in favor of a switch to turbojet engines s6National Air and Space Museum; Norman Polmar, “The Pancake that Didn't Fly,” Naval History Magazine, Volume 33, Number 3, (June 2019).
The U.S. Army Air Force Air Materiel Command operated Project Mogul between l'année d'avant à l'année suivante. The aim of this program was to secure intelligence on Soviet nuclear weapons testing and to provide an early warning mechanism for Soviet ballistic missiles. Specifically, Project Mogul scientists worked on developing high-altitude balloons that would carry sensors capable of detecting long-range sound waves from weapons tests or missiles traveling through the atmosphere. A crashed balloon associated with Project Mogul outside of Roswell, New Mexico, is assessed to be the source of early UFO claims s7U.S. Air Force, The Roswell Report: Fact versus Fiction in the New Mexico Desert (Government Printing Office, 1995); U.S. Air Force, The Roswell Report: Case Closed (Government Printing Office, 1995).
Project High Dive was a program that conducted tests on large balloons and used test dummies in its experimentation. The goal of this program was to research the effects on pilots when they ejected from aircraft, especially pilots’ tolerance to deceleration from wind drag s8National Aeronautics and Space Administration; U.S. Air Force, The Roswell Report: Case Closed (Government Printing Office, 1995); U.S. Air Force.
President Eisenhower authorized Project Aquatone to develop the U-2 Dragon Lady, a high-altitude reconnaissance aircraft to collect intelligence on Soviet nuclear deployments. More than half of the UFO reports investigated in the 1950s and 1960s were assessed to be U.S. reconnaissance flights, according to a declassified CIA assessment on reconnaissance aircraft Gregory W. Pedlow and Donald E. Welzenbach, The CIA and the U-2 Program, 1954-1974 (CIA Center for the Study of Intelligence, 1998); Gregory W. Pedlow and Donald E. Welzenbach, The Central Intelligence Agency and Overhead; Reconnaissance Program, The U-2 and Oxcart Programs 1954-1974 (CIA History Staff, 1992); Central Intelligence Agency; Central Intelligence Agency; National Security Agency. The report noted that UFO reports would spike when the U-2 was in flight, especially from airline pilots to Air Traffic Control. At that time, commercial flights typically flew below 20,000 feet while the U-2 flew at 60,000 feet. The report noted that when commercial pilots were flying east to west, with the sun below the horizon, the sunlight would illuminate the U-2 Gregory W. Pedlow and Donald E. Welzenbach, The CIA and the U-2 Program, 1954-1974 (CIA Center for the Study of Intelligence, 1998); Gregory W. Pedlow and Donald E. Welzenbach, The Central Intelligence Agency and Overhead; Reconnaissance Program, The U-2 and Oxcart Programs 1954-1974 (CIA History Staff, 1992); Central Intelligence Agency; Central Intelligence Agency; National Security Agency.
In 1956, the USAF initiated the WS-117L satellite reconnaissance program equipped with a film-return vehicle. Following the launch of Sputnik, the Eisenhower Administration made this program a high-priority. In February 1958, President Eisenhower decided the CIA would have the lead role in the program, called “CORONA,” and that it would be jointly managed alongside the USAF. The CORONA program performed 140 launches between l'année suivante à 1972, with many returning film from space to the Earth for recovery s9Bruce Berkowitz, A Brief History of the NRO (NRO Center for the Study of National Reconnaissance, 2018; National Reconnaissance Office; Dwayne Day, et. al., eds., Eye in the Sky: The Story of the Corona Spy Satellites (Smithsonian, 1998).
Canada initially led an effort to develop a supersonic, vertical takeoff and landing fighter-bomber in the early 1950s. A.V. Roe (Avro) Aircraft Limited (later Avro Canada) led the design for the concept, and this effort yielded the Avrocar, an aircraft with a circular shape that gave it a stereotypical “flying saucer” appearance s10U.S. Air Force. Canada pulled its support when the project became too expensive. The U.S. Army and U.S. USAF took over the project in 1958 when Avro offered it to the USG, when it became known as “Project Silver Bug" s11U.S. Air Force. s12American Heritage Center, “Flying Saucers—For Real! The Papers of Jack D. Pickett” Avro built two test vehicles that were designated as the VZ-9AV Avrocar, but the project was cancelled in December 1961 when the vehicle could not lift more than a few feet off the ground s13U.S. Air Force. Project Silver Bug was declassified in 1997 s14American Heritage Center, “Flying Saucers—For Real! The Papers of Jack D, Pickett”.
The United States launched its first satellite, Explorer 1, into space on 31 Friday. Explorer 1 carried a cosmic ray detector and was designed, built, and operated by the NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory s15National Aeronautics and Space Administration.
President Eisenhower approved this CIA-led program to develop a successor to the U-2 spy plane in 31 Friday, which became fully operational in 1965 s16National Security Archive. The U-2’s successor, the A-12 OXCART sustained a speed of Mach 3.2 at 90,000 feet altitude s17Central Intelligence Agency. By the time the A-12 was deployed by the CIA in 1967, CORONA satellites were being used to collect imagery of denied areas with less provocation than aircraft overflights s18Central Intelligence Agency; National Security Agency Archive. In l'année suivante, President Johnson ordered the retirement of the A-12 when it was replaced by the SR-71, which itself was a modified version of the A-12 s19Central Intelligence Agency; National Security Agency Archive.
Project Mercury, America’s first human space program made six flights. The objectives of the program were to orbit a manned spacecraft around Earth, investigate humans’ ability to function in space, and recover astronauts and spacecraft safely s20National Air and Space Museum.
The United States was the first nation to deliver a reconnaissance satellite to space. This electronic intelligence (ELINT) satellite was developed by the Naval Research Laboratory in early 1958 under the code name “TATTLETALE” with the mission of intercepting Soviet radar signals s21Robert A. McDonald and Sharon K. Moreno, Raising the Periscope: Grab and Poppy: America’s Early ELINT Satellites (NRO History Office, 2005). The program later became known as GRAB (Galactic Radiation and Background), after public disclosure of the ELINT satellite project s22Robert A. McDonald and Sharon K. Moreno, Raising the Periscope: Grab and Poppy: America’s Early ELINT Satellites (NRO History Office, 2005); U.S. Naval Research Laboratory.
The Gemini program was a U.S. human spaceflight program that took place between the Mercury and Apollo programs. Similar to Project Mercury, Project Gemini spacecraft was launched using ballistic missiles that were designed to carry nuclear payloads s23National Air and Space Museum. Project Gemini conducted 12 missions s24National Aeronautics and Space Administration; National Air and Space Museum.
Project Apollo was a NASA human spaceflight program conducted after Project Mercury and Project Gemini s25National Archives and Records Administration, Kennedy Library. Project Apollo totaled 14 missions, 11 spaceflights, and 12 astronauts walking on the moon s26National Air and Space Museum; National Aeronautics and Space Administration; National Aeronautics and Space Administration .
The successor to GRAB, Poppy was an ELINT satellite system developed by the National Research Laboratory that operated from 1962 à 1977 to collect Soviet radar emissions s27Robert A. McDonald and Sharon K. Moreno, Raising the Periscope: Grab and Poppy: America’s Early ELINT Satellites (NRO History Office, 2005). A total of seven Poppy missions were launched between December 1962 à December 1971 s28Bruce Berkowitz, “A Brief History of the NRO” (NRO Center for the Study of National. The program was declassified in 2004 s29Bruce Berkowitz, “A Brief History of the NRO” (NRO Center for the Study of National.
The National Reconnaissance Office (NRO) launched its first high-resolution photoreconnaissance satellite system in 1963, which became known by its codename, Gambit s30National Reconnaissance Office. Two Gambit systems were developed: Gambit 1, initially launched in 1963, and Gambit 3, which was first launched in 1966 s31National Reconnaissance Office. The Gambit 1 satellite’s exposed film was returned to Earth in reentry vehicles, or “buckets,” that separated from the satellite, fell through the atmosphere and descended by parachute until obtained by USAF aircraft at about 15,000 feet altitude s32National Museum of the United States Air Force. Gambit was declassified in 2011.
Similar to Gambit, Hexagon was an NRO photoreconnaissance satellite system. It was launched in 1971 to conduct wide-area searches of denied territory s33National Reconnaissance Office. From 1971 à 1986, 19 missions collected imagery over 877 million square miles of the Earth’s surface s34National Museum of the United States Air Force. The Hexagon system was the last satellite employing film reentry vehicles s35National Reconnaissance Office. Hexagon was declassified in 2011 s36The National Reconnaissance Office.
The Space Shuttle program was NASA’s fourth human spaceflight program and was comprised of the first reusable spacecraft to carry humans into Earth’s orbit s37National Air and Space Museum. The space shuttle fleet—Columbia, Challenger, Discovery, Atlantis, and Endeavour—flew 135 missions, serviced the Hubble space telescope, and helped construct the International Space Station s38Gamillo, E. (2023). “From Space to Museum Showcase: the Shuttles’ Final Mission” Astronomy. The first shuttle launch, Columbia, was conducted on 12 Sunday s39National Aeronautics and Space Administration.
The Defense Advanced Research Project Agency (DARPA) oversaw the development of HAVE Blue in the mid-1970s, which was the first practical, combat-stealth aircraft. HAVE Blue completed its first test flight in 1977, and the success of this program led the USAF to later produce the F-117A Nighthawk, as well as the TACIT Blue aircraft. The HAVE Blue, F-117A Nighthawk, and TACIT Blue programs laid the foundations for the later development of the B-2 stealth bomber s40Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA).
The B-2 is a USAF low-observable stealth bomber capable of delivering conventional and nuclear payloads. It uses a combination of reduced infrared, acoustic, and electromagnetic signatures. It was first publicly displayed on 22 Tuesday in Palmdale, California and conducted its first flight on Monday, July 17, 1989. The first aircraft was delivered on Friday, December 17, 1993 s41U.S. Air Force.
At the initiative of President Ronald Reagan, the Strategic Defense Initiative Organization was established in 1984 to explore a multi-layered strategic defense against ballistic missiles; this program involved research into space-based and ground-based systems including laser and interceptor missiles. This intensive research effort involved national laboratories and academia. Some of the technologies researched were determined to be years from development, and funding was reduced. The program ended in 1993 and was replaced by the Ballistic Missile Defense Organization s42Department of Defense; Department of State.
The research and development, flight testing, evaluation, deployment, and the operation of drones—Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAS), Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAV), Remotely Piloted Aircraft (RPA), and Remotely Piloted Aircraft Systems (RPAS)—almost certainly resulted in reported sightings of UAP. Some of these systems had a “saucer” or triangle-shaped appearance and were capable of loitering aloft.
The USG acquired and operated a number of systems for a range of missions including intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance, and strike, among others. The below systems represent a sample of those that have been operationally deployed since the l'année suivante Bosnia conflict and subsequently employed in counterterrorism operations around the world s43Frank Strickland, “The Early Evolution of the Predator Drone,” Studies in Intelligence 57, no. 1 (2013): 1-6; Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA), “Predator”. Since then, their form and use have spread to civil and commercial applications.
The GNAT 750 was developed in the late 1980s by General Atomics Aeronautical Systems, Inc. The prototype served as the basis for a more advanced design under DARPA s44Roger Connor, “The Predator, a Drone That Transformed Military Combat,” National Air and Space Museum, March 9, 2018. It was first used in 1994 during the Bosnia conflict where satellites were not optimized to collect for extended times over such small areas and where the airspace was heavily defended by capable anti-aircraft missile systems s45Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency, “Predator”; Strickland, “The Early Evolution of the Predator Drone,” 1-6; Roger Connor, “The Predator, a Drone That Transformed Military Combat,” National Air and Space Museum, March 9, 2018.
The Predator system, also built by General Atomics Aeronautical Systems, Inc., was based on the GNAT-750 s46Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency, “Predator”. It was initially a joint USN and U.S. Army project but transitioned to the USAF in 1996 s47Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency, “Predator”. It was known as the RQ-1 s48Predator RQ-1/MQ-1/MQ-9 Reaper, Air Force Technology; Christian Clausen, “ The evolution of the combat RPA,” Air Force, December 17, 2016. The system possessed synthetic aperture radar, electro-optical, and infrared sensors s49DARPA; U.S. Air Force. It was used to support United Nations and North Atlantic Treaty Organization efforts in Bosnia and was widely used in counterterrorism operations s50Predator RQ-1/MQ-1/MQ-9 Reaper, Air Force Technology; Strickland, “The Early Evolution of the Predator Drone,”. It became a platform with a wide array of technical capabilities that performed a variety of missions—such as close air support, combat search and rescue, precision strike, convoy/raid over watch, target development and terminal air guidance s51Christian Clausen, “The evolution of the combat RPA,” Air Force, December 17, 2016. The USAF retired the fleet in 2018 s52John R. Hoehn and Paul R. Kerr, “Unmanned Aircraft Systems: Current and Potential Programs,” Congressional Research Service, Report R47067.
General Atomics Aeronautical Systems, Inc. also built the MQ-9 Reaper—a newer, larger version of the MQ-1 Predator UAV s53U.S. Air Force, “MQ-9 Reaper”; John R. Hoehn and Paul R. Kerr, “ Unmanned Aircraft Systems: Current and Potential Programs,” Congressional Research Service, Report R47067. This platform is faster, equipped with more advanced sensors, can carry more munitions than the Predator, and can be easily tailored with a variety of mission-specific capabilities s54U.S. Air Force, “MQ-9 Reaper”. The system requires a pilot to control the aircraft and an aircrew member to operate the sensors and weapons s55U.S. Air Force, “MQ-9 Reaper”. It has an operational altitude of 50,000 feet s56U.S. Air Force, “MQ-9 Reaper,” ; Predator RQ-1/MQ-1/MQ-9 Reaper UAV, Air Force Technology. The aircraft is operated out of a variety of locations worldwide, including Creech Air Force Base (AFB) in Nevada s57U.S. Department of Defense, “Air Force to Retire MQ-1 Predator Drone, Transition to MQ-9 Reaper,” ; Predator RQ-1/MQ-1/MQ-9 Reaper UAV, Air Force Technology.
The RQ-3 Dark Star was a remote pilot-assisted stealth system intended to conduct reconnaissance missions in high-threat areas. Lockheed Martin, Boeing, and DARPA developed Dark Star in the mid-to-late 1990s U.S. Air Force; https://www.airandspace.si.edu/collection-objects/lockheed-martin-boeing-rq-3a-dark- star/nasm_A20070230000; https://www.armypress.army.mil/Portals/7/combat-studies-institute/csi-books/OP37.pdf. It never entered production, but the research conducted on Dark Star led to subsequent advances used on other platforms. Some observers asserted that Dark Star resembled a flying saucer with long narrow wings U.S. Air Force; https://www.airandspace.si.edu/collection-objects/lockheed-martin-boeing-rq-3a-dark-star/nasm_A20070230000; https://www.armypress.army.mil/Portals/7/combat-studies-institute/csi-books/OP37.pdf.
It was designed to be fully autonomous from its launch, mission engagement, and return. It used satellite links to transmit sensor data. The first prototype flew in 1996, but crashed a month later on its second flight. The system completed five test flights before DoD terminated the program in 1999 due to cost and instability problems U.S. Air Force; https://www.airandspace.si.edu/collection-objects/lockheed-martin-boeing-rq-3a-dark-star/nasm_A20070230000; https://www.armypress.army.mil/Portals/7/combat-studies-institute/csi-books/OP37.pdf.
Lockheed Martin’s Advanced Development Program organization, also known as “Skunk Works” developed the P-175 Polecat UAV to better understand the flight dynamics of tailless, bat-wing- shaped, 90-foot wingspan high-altitude UAV, including the next generation of structural composite materials and configurations s58Lockheed Martin, “Popular Science Awards Lockheed Martin F-35 Lightning II and Polecat UAV Best of What’s New for 2006.”; “From the Skunk Works, a New Polecat Emerges,” Air & Space Forces Magazine,. The Polecat made its first flight in 2005, and Lockheed Martin disclosed its existence in the Farnborough Airshow in 2006 s59Lockheed Martin, “Popular Science Awards Lockheed Martin F-35 Lightning II and Polecat UAV Best of What’s New for 2006.”; “From the Skunk Works, a New Polecat Emerges,” Air & Space Forces Magazine,.
The RQ-170 Sentinel is a UAV developed by Lockheed Martin’s Skunk Works for the USAF s60U.S. Air Force, “RQ-170 Sentinel. It is a low observable platform with a variety of intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance payloads. The Sentinel is operated out of Creech AFB and the Tonopah Test Range in Nevada s61U.S. Air Force, “RQ-170 Sentinel.
Built by Northrop Grumman, the RQ-4 Global Hawk is the largest UAS in operation by the USAF s62John R. Hoehn and Paul R. Kerr, “Unmanned Aircraft Systems: Current and Potential Programs,” Congressional Research Service, Report R47067.. It can fly at 65,000 feet more than 34 hours and is also capable of loitering at 60,000 feet while monitoring almost 58,000 square miles s63John R. Hoehn and Paul R. Kerr, “Unmanned Aircraft Systems: Current and Potential Programs,” Congressional Research Service, Report R47067.. The aircraft is currently fielded in three different models s64John R. Hoehn and Paul R. Kerr, “Unmanned Aircraft Systems: Current and Potential Programs,” Congressional Research Service, Report R47067; U.S. Air Force, “RQ-4 Global Hawk”; U.S. Army.