AARO assesses that the incidents of UAP sightings reported to USG organizations, the claims that some constitute extraterrestrial craft, and the claims that the USG has secured and is experimenting on alien technology, most likely are the result of a range of cultural, political, and technological factors. AARO bases this conclusion on the aggregate findings of all USG investigations to date, the misinterpretation of all reported named sensitive programs, the lack of empirical evidence to support the USG reverse-engineering narrative, and AARO’s assessment that the piece of metal alleged to be recovered from an alien spacecraft in the late 1940s is ordinary, of terrestrial origin, and possesses no exceptional qualities.
In both periods, changes in the international order brought uncertainty. Concern about the Soviet Union’s desire for regional hegemony and military and political superiority contributed to U.S. involvement with conflicts in Korea, Vietnam, and elsewhere, sparked a boom in U.S. technological innovation, and led to widespread fear within society about Soviet capabilities and intentions.
One primary means of competing with the Soviet Union was to collect intelligence on Soviet leadership intentions and military capabilities. The means by which the U.S. accomplished this goal was to develop a range of air- and space-based reconnaissance systems to collect an array of intelligence on the Soviet Union—especially over its territory. During some early UFO investigation efforts, it was deemed essential to determine if UFOs were Soviet “secret weapons” or psychological warfare operations aimed at causing public fear and generating hysteria to undermine U.S. societal morale.
Today’s global security environment is similarly dynamic. Both the Russian Federation and the PRC seek to alter the international system at the expense of the security of the United States. AARO recognizes that concern with competitor technological surprise is still a real and legitimate driver of UAP investigations today. It is imperative to determine whether or not these sightings represent a risk to flight safety, and whether these sightings represent technological advances that could pose counterintelligence and national security threats.
The USG’s need to maintain secrecy to protect classified information about intelligence sources and methods, military operations and technology, and U.S. vulnerabilities is also a shared context among all UAP investigations. While secrecy is essential to protect U.S. national security interests, it can reduce the public’s trust in government. With a gap in information about UFO/UAP investigations, other information sources and narratives, including private UFO investigative organizations and “UFOlogy” emerged to fill that gap. AARO assesses that the classification of prior USG investigations have fueled speculation that the government was hiding knowledge of extraterrestrials, when, in fact, secrecy was and still is intended to deliberately and thoughtfully protect sensitive military and intelligence community programs, capabilities, sources, and methods.
Segments of the American public have been interested in this topic since the term “flying saucer” emerged after Arnold’s sighting in 1947, as evidenced by the proliferation of television, books, movies, and podcasts today on the topic. The subject is deeply rooted in popular culture with its own themes, mythologies, and conspiracy theories. Capt Ruppelt, who was involved with three UFO investigations efforts, including being the initial leader of Project BLUE BOOK, noted that there would be spikes in reported sightings after official press events mentioning UFOs; suggesting that reports of sightings can influence the incidence of additional reported sightings s1Edward J. Ruppelt, The Report on Unidentified Flying Objects (Doubleday, 1956). Page 93..
Alleged bureaucratic barriers including indifference, cognitive dissonance, lack of support or resources, and deliberate obstruction are also similarities. Some members of investigatory panels have claimed official obstruction, ranging from lack of access to senior decision-makers to insufficient staff and resources.
Previous and current investigations have been challenged by insufficient data and information for intelligence and scientific analysis to resolve anomalous incidents. Insufficient data and information was compounded by inconsistent reporting and lack of continuity among investigations and investigative practices. Capt Ruppelt, the first director of Project BLUE BOOK, noted that the inability to collect the UFO’s altitude, size, and speed was a recurring and significant obstacle to resolving cases s2Edward J. Ruppelt, The Report on Unidentified Flying Objects (Doubleday, 1956). Page 91. A similar challenge remains today, even with the advancement in technology. Most UAP sightings have no data associated with them beyond an often vague narrative account; and when there is hard data, it is often incomplete or of poor quality. In terms of military reporting, the sensors on which UAP most frequently are captured are calibrated and optimized for combat. UAP are not routinely captured by exquisite, high-definition, multi-capability, intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance collection platforms— a threshold which is often required to successfully resolve a case.
There is a conviction among some Americans that the USG has conducted a deception operation to conceal the fact that it has recovered extraterrestrial spacecraft and alien beings as well as systematically exploited and reverse-engineered extraterrestrial technology s3J. Allen Hyneck, “The UFO Experience,” Da Capo Press, 1977; Edward J. Ruppelt, The Report on Unidentified Flying Objects (Doubleday, 1956),. This perception probably has been fueled by key UFO investigators’ public comments. For example, J. Allen Hynek of Project BLUE BOOK, said that the USAF expected him to perform the role of debunker; and Capt Ruppelt, the first chief of BLUE BOOK, later wrote that he was expected to explain away every report and that the USAF sought to produce press stories in alignment with the USAF’s position s4J. Allen Hyneck, “The UFO Experience,” Da Capo Press, 1977; Edward J. Ruppelt, The Report on Unidentified Flying Objects (Doubleday, 1956),.
Polling data on public trust reflects Americans’ changing views over time. According to the Pew Research Center, polling on this topic began in 1958, when about 75 percent of Americans trusted the USG “to do the right thing almost always or most of the time.” Since 2007, however, that figure has not risen above 30 percent. This lack of trust probably has contributed to the belief held by some subset of the U.S. population that the USG has not been truthful regarding knowledge of extraterrestrial craft s5Pew Research Center, “Public Trust in Government: 1958-2022,” June 6, 2022..
Though there were waves of public interest in UAP in popular culture during the Cold War, especially during the 1950s, AARO assesses that UAP content in popular culture is more pervasive now than ever. The speed of discovery, and the ubiquity of information available through the internet on the topic is unprecedented. Frequent exposure to the topic though traditional and social media has increased the number of Americans who believe that UAP are of extraterrestrial origin, based on a 2021 Gallup poll s6“Do Americans Believe in UFOs,” Gallup.
Aside from hoaxes and forgeries, misinformation and disinformation is more prevalent and easier to disseminate now than ever before, especially with today’s advanced photo, video, and computer generated imagery tools. Internet search and content recommendation algorithms serve to reinforce individuals’ preconceptions and confirmation biases just as much as to help educate and inform.