Mellon, Chris
: The Debrief,
: The Debrief, : The Debrief, It appears that the latest AARO figures for unexplained UAP cases work out to 62%, as of le , since the current AARO historical report of en gives no figures.
AARO’s 2022 Annual Report reported 510 total UAP cases, of which 171 of
the 366 new post-Task Force cases were uncharacterized and unattributed
s1p. 5. This seems to be a brand new name for “unidentified” s2see the UAP Reporting Directive May 2023 para. 3.B.6
though the Annual Report tries to suggest it is a more preliminary “initial” category than either “positively
resolved” or “unidentified.” Unfortunately, it does not define these terms in the AARO Report.
However, AARO’s UAP Reporting Directive of en belies
their effort to minimize this new “unattributed” category label, by defining in paragraph 3.B.6 that UAP
ATTRIBUTION is the assessed natural or artificial source of the phenomenon and includes solar, weather, tidal
events; US government, scientific, industry, and private activities; and foreign (allied or adversary) government,
scientific, industry, and private activities.
That seems to indicate that “attribution” is not some “initial”
cursory impression but a thorough “assessment,” hence like the identification process that would lead to “identified”
or “unidentified.”
The AARO Annual Report seems to conveniently fail to mention that when these new 171 unidentified UAP reports are added to the previous UAP Task Force’s 143 unidentified, the grand total of 314 unidentified out of 510 represents a formidable 62% unexplained/unidentified.
AARO makes no mention at all of this statistic of 62% unexplained. The reader would be required to know the AARO predecessor’s UAP Task Force stats, add the numbers, and do the calculations of percentage – which almost no one will even realize needs to be done.
AARO admits its en Annual report (for 2022) had revealed
that “some” of the (171) unidentified UAP demonstrated unusual flight characteristics or performance
capabilities
s3AAROR p. 26, omits the “171” number given in the neither report says how
many were “some.”
This is the core element of any basic definition of a truly Unexplained UFO or UAP: unusual flight characteristics/performance along with unconventional shape (the definition can be traced as far back as Air Force UFO reporting directives in en à en ). AARO does not single this out for much attention nor give exact statistics.
The en AARO report avoids all mention of its predecessor UAP Task Force’s remarkable pro-UAP statistics of 99.3% Unidentified, including at least 56% involving multiple sensor systems which would eliminate sensor errors and conventional IFO explanations s4stats all omitted in AAROR p. 24.
No AARO mention is made of either the 99.3% unidentified or the succeeding 62% unidentified number, the latest exact percentage (by calculation) deducible from exact AARO case numbers (see next section trying to numerically pin down AARO’s subsequent vague “majority” wording). The total caseload percentage of unexplained does not seem to be dropping much further if at all, given that AARO continues in 2023 and 2024 to repeatedly use the same vague “majority” term for the explained case fraction, conveniently without numbers. Presumably, if it had dropped significantly AARO would likely have highlighted this or at least set the record straight.