Attitudes and Values

ACCEPTANCE OR REJECTION of technological innovation by a society is seldom exclusively a matter of rational assessment. A melange of personal and culturally defined values, as concepts of what is worth while, desirable, good, and ethically right, plays a large and often dominating role in generating the attitudes that in part determine an innovation's fate n1["...in any human situation, no matter how filled with quantitative data it may be, there are always present powerful human considerations that are incommensurable. These incommensurable -- a tangle of memories, prejudices, emotional needs, aspirations, common decencies -- exert a tremendous and probably always a determining influence upon the real, as opposed to the exposed, nature of a situation. Any wise decision in such a situation must take into account not only the data from which logical conclusions about present upgrading efficiencies can be drawn, but that other data which leads to the non-logical understanding of what human beings are, need, and want to be." See Elting Morison, "The Pertinence of the Past" (paper delivered at Executive Development Convocation, Spring 1959, School of Industrial Management, Massachusetts Institute of Technology)]. Individual attitudes are further conditioned by the level of a person's ability to understand the use of the innovation and its pertinence to events and people within the context of the society in which he lives.

On the other hand, the impact of science and technology always has the potential for changing or reinforcing the attitudes and values that are fundamental to the direction and content of patterns of living n2[."it is commonplace to speak of attitudes and values as if there was clear understanding and agreement on what was the referent of discourse. Close analysis of points of view seldom reveals a warranty for this assumption."This is, however, not the place for a lengthy excursion into the latest points of view in psychology and sociology on these concepts. A word or two of elaboration may nevertheless clarify the intent of later passages and sections of this chapter. "Only in the crudest sense are attitudes and values preferred positions on a scale from strongly 'for' to strongly 'against' some stated position or state of affairs. Essentially, attitudes and values refer to a variously organized body of knowledge (facts and fancies) involving recollections, present experiences and future expectations, this knowledge itself including evaluative categories and judgments. Thus, attitudes similar in the degree of endorsement or opposition to a position may be highly dissimilar in their content and structure. "Part of the content of any attitude or value is one's own self and one's associations which both validate and interpret one's position and perspective. Thus, attitudes and values are peculiarly a product of where one stands in society, where one has been, and where one is going. Thus, a sharp shift in one's social or physical environment, one's knowledge, or one's expectations about the future, inevitably has an impact on one's attitudes and values."The content of knowledge about space is probably very sparse and unorganized (as is public knowledge about nuclear energy or foreign policy) and largely seen as irrelevant to one's self and one's associates. To the extent that developments or a lack of developments in space alter the body of knowledge, shift notions about relevance, and alter the viewpoints of one's associates, to that extent one can assume that there will be a shift in pertinent attitudes and values." (Correspondence with Stephen B. Withey, Director, Public Affairs Studies, Survey Research Center, University of Michigan)]. Therefore, if the consequences of space activities for living patterns are to be understood, so that they may be anticipated and planned for, it is desirable to know as much as possible about the intimate circularity of the relationship between attitudes and values and the processes of social change. Fortunately, one of the important implications of space efforts in this regard is the extraordinary opportunity they offer for studying these processes of change -- before, during, and after their occurrence n3["What we think as individuals and as communities, and all the patterns of our behavior, make sense in a traditional context. They are relevant to the traditionally established circumstances in which we live. As these circumstances change, our thinking and behavior have to change too. The concepts, the attitudes, and the manners of old generations have to give way to new concepts, new attitudes, and new manners in the generations that succeed them. But tradition can change only slowly and painfully. Consequently, even in societies that are evolving at a leisurely pace there is likely to be some lag between the actual circumstances of the environment and the traditions that supposedly respond to them. What threatens when the pace is stepped up, however, is moral and intellectual chaos." See Louis J. Halle, "The Natural History of Man's Emergence into Space," International Political Implications of Activities in Outer Space , Jostph M. Coldsen, ad., RAND Corporation Report R-362-RC (196(i), P. 205. Also see Margaret Mead, Donald N. Michael, Harold D. Lasswell, and Lawrence K. Frank, "Man in Space: A Tool and Program for the Study of Social Change," Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences , Vol. 72 (April 10, 1958), pp. 165-214].

The discussions of problem areas in earlier chapters have of course included to some extent the role of specific values in relation to the implications of a specific problem. However, attitudes and values themselves constitute a problem area, since one of the major products of the space effort has been a variety of stated opinions about the present and future impact of space activities on them. The extent to which these opinions are personal expressions of an assumed "fact" and the extent to which they are based on empirical data needs to be known, so that their validity as a basis for policy can be assessed n4["Despite many years of discussion and many pages of writing, the actual tole of public opinion in the making of ... policy decisions, in the United States or elsewhere, is something of an enigma. To talk to some policy makers is to come away with the impression that public opinion is a highly volatile force, omnipresent, unpredictable, a combination of shifting searchlights within which the policy maker must function, and which constitutes a basic limitation on what he can do. On the other hand, there are both poll data and frequent observations which suggest that the policy maker is largely free to do what he wishes, and will do what he wishes, regardless of what those outside of government think or want .... This is one of the more obscure areas of political analysis .... Behind various statements about the role of public opinion work the implicit theories and intuitive calculations of public officials. So far as we know, these have not been described adequately or analyzed by scholars." Richard C. Snyder and James A. Robinson , National and International Decision Making (document prepared for the Institute for International Order, to be published early in 1961), pp. 102-103 of the draft copy.]. Such assessment is always important to the workings of a democratic society in which policies are, ideally if not always in fact, the result of an interacting relationship between policy planners, decision makers, and the people, who may be either hostile or supportive to the plans and decisions. By the same token, assessment would appear to be especially important in regard to space activities, which, if present plans and accomplishment hopes materialize, will unavoidably have global consequences for human affairs.

Yet exact empirical data are few, both about opinions on attitudes and about the interworkings of attitudes with the events of social change. Since the space effort may well be a most radical instrument for social change, it is appropriate that agencies charged with its conduct should assist in pursuing research that may enlarge the still slender store of knowledge in this problem area.

Implications of Space Activities for National Goals and Tomorrow's World

Many of the knowledgeable persons who were interviewed during the preparation of this report -- or whose statements made elsewhere were read -- expressed deep concern and often strong opinions regarding the proper role of space activities in a democracy and in the world into which we are moving. The substance of their concern included both the special and complex problems that space activities may pose and the changes already under way in traditional values -- changes in part related to the recent history of high rates of technological change and the pressures for social adjustment produced by innovation n5[See Clyde Kluckhohn, "Have There Been Discernible Shifts in American Values During the Past Generation?" in Elting Morison, ed., The American Style , Harper (1958), especially P. 181]. That the present speculations -- and often firm convictions -- of these serious students of space and society demonstrated a variety of conclusions about the role of space in relation to society suggests that research would be helpful to clarify the assumptions associated with the arguments to be discussed here.

The role of space in the world ahead of us

Many observers of the present scene believe that eventually the cold war of weapons must either become hot or be replaced by economic warfare between East and West. Given the latter alternative, some of the observers argue that the vast expenditures consequent on the rivalry in social and economic development would probably seriously reduce resources and ambitions for space activities, aside from an occasional scientific probe, because positive humanitarian results of earth-based challenges could be realized relatively quickly and without the interim frustrations that are at present characteristic of complicated space developments. It is assumed that, in an all-out competition between East and West for economic dominance, the East would probably place its major propaganda investments in devices less remote than space projects, and thereby reduce the incentive for all-out space activities in the United States to the point where the program would be simply a useful technological adjunct to certain areas of scientific research. Others, however, assert that, despite the demands made on resources and creativity by all-out economic warfare and the associated rivalry to improve the standards of living in underdeveloped areas, the United States and Russia would continue to place major emphasis on their space programs as outstanding devices for scoring propaganda victories and for demonstrating the relative technological and scientific prowess of the two ideologies.

Some informed students of the matter are unshakeable in their belief that the search for knowledge in space will encourage a large program to support and supplement the search and to make use of its findings, although they acknowledge that at present there is no good reason to believe that the government and the "public" are prepared to pursue space-derived knowledge, primarily for its own sake, at the level of resource and financial investment presently going into these activities.

Another point of view contends that space activities will continue because they a-re a form of circus not only for the man on the street but for his leadership, providing a sense of escape from the profound frustrations and complexities of life on earth n6["But we are also going to have to deal with the dangers of mass insanity or mass imbecility, dangers that we may not recognize even in their realization. Anything we can do, therefore ' to keep wisdom alive will be to the good. Perhaps we should set aside some schools and some universities for the development of 'generalists,' a few men with broad philosophical minds and a command of general knowledge who can survey the whole human scene in which the mindless operatives swarm, who can speak for direction and ultimate purpose, who can preserve the heritage of humanity through the period of transition. Perhaps we should build a few ivory towers against the day when we are able again to resume, whether on earth or in outer space, that progress which, rather than identifying us with the bees, distinguishes us from them." See Louis J. Halle, "The Natural History of Man's Emergence into Space," International Political Implications of Activities in Outer Space , P. 208. (For full citation see Note 3 above.) See also Charles Mackay, Extraordinary Popular Delusons and the Madness of Crowds , Ceorge C. Harrap (1956)].

A good-many people are convinced that internationalizing space is the only way to insure its utilization for peaceful activities and to meet the eventual magnitude of the cost and effort it involves. Some of those who hold this opinion feel that great new opportunities would be open to an internationalized program and new creative resources brought to bear; they point to such an international research effort as CERN, the European nuclear accelerator project. Others feel that it would eliminate what they consider to be the chief basis for space activities -- East-West competition -- and without such competition, there would be little or no pressure for expending resources at the level held necessary for future large-scale space projects. In other words, if it no longer mattered who "gets there first," the incentive for getting there at all would be radically reduced.

The relation of space strategy to national strategy and needs

With regard to our needs as a nation, two general problems are posed. First, what is the appropriate priority for space activities? In view of the always increasing demands on manpower and money for routine national needs and of the many social and technological areas in which manpower and money might be expended to produce other important results for mankind, to what extent are we justified in spending vast sums on space activities? n7[The concerns expressed with regard to the role of space in society today and tomorrow generally have, as a background, an appreciation in one form or another of the complications, both political and social, which face us as a nation and as a world in the years ahead. While there is some difference of opinion as to the priority and intensity of these complications, there is apparently general agreement that they are of the sort described in such books as: Robert L. Heilbroner , The Future as History , Harper (1960); John Kenneth Galbraith, The Affluent Society , Houghton Mifflin (1958); and Walt Whitman Rostow, The United States in the World Arena , Harper (1960). Generally speaking, these complications arise from the growing demands in the years immediately ahead for enlargement of public services at home as well as in the world abroad. In addition, there is a feeling that the interests of the people at home as well as of those abroad will not be such as to find space central to their aspirations, preoccupation, or demands; all-out efforts in the space area may not be viewed sympathetically and therefore may not have the kind of support necessary for their realization, Abroad as well as here, the proper allocation of efforts for space activities are matters of concern. A New York Times article, March 21, 1959, p. 2 ("Two Scientists Question Value of Space and Missile Program"), quoted Dr. A. R. J. Crosch, then manager of space programs for the International Business Machine Corporation, as saying: "@e isn't any point in zooming off into outer space. We could spend the money better solving problems here at home -- taking care of our overcrowded, underfed millions. If we did that, we wouldn't need to find new worlds to colonize." Dr. Louis Ridenour, then Assistant General Manager of Research and Development in the Missile Systems Division of the Lockheed Aircraft Corporation, was quoted thus: "We turn in our cars before they are worn out and our nation would go broke if we didn't. Our missile program fits into the system very well, we send up missiles that never come back and so we have to make more missiles." The London Economist , Vol. 195 (April 30, 1960), pp. 396-397, stated: "In one week, the 'important' industrial questions offered to the public may be whether Britain should cast away money with satellites into space, develop a Channel Tunnel that nobody suggests would pay as a private commercial enterprise, or go in with France to find the public money to develop a supersonic airliner. It is usual to answer this by saying that Britain is a very rich society now; that its citizens have now enough income to make investment in space circuses as sensible a choice as the purchase of motor cars which are nice to polish but too dangerous actually to drive on the roads; and that vast incidental benefits to civil industry flow irresistibly from these ventures that must always be pushed just beyond the extremes of dry-as-dust profitability. Is it? Are they? It is unnecessary to adduce the usual arguments about benefits that could be gained by applying such resources to medical research, or in assistance to underdeveloped countries. More selfishly: the houses outside which the parked cars spawn are a generally inconvenient, often smaller than one's grandfathers occupied, and aesthetically revolting," According to a Reuters' dispatch ( New York Times , June 11, 1960), Pravda published a letter (entitled "Isn't- it too early to play with the moon?") from a citizen who wrote in part, "Damn the moon and serve up better food." See also Fred Hoyle, "The Case Against a British Space Programme," The New Scientist , Vol. 8 (August 11, 1960), pp. 394-395, and"For and Against a British Space Programme," The New Scientist, Vol. 8 (August 18, 1960), pp. 446-448.].

Few suggest that they know the answer, and many argue that research on the problem of priority assignment itself deserves the highest priority, from the standpoint of the utility of the advancement of science for mankind n8[See, for example, Wallace R. Brode, "Development of a Science Policy," Science , Vol. 131 (Jan. 1, 1960), pp. 9-15. Consider also the following statement by George B. Kistiakowsky, speaking as moderator of the Harvard Law Schoolls outer Space Symposium, held in early 1960-. "I'd like to emphasize that I am not in outer space; I am firmly on the ground -- place down south; but even so I find myself completely unable to disassociate myself from being involved at least by implication in outer space. On two separate days I had two Nobel Prize winners come to my office. The first one of them said, 'George, you are selling basic science down the river in order to support outer space activities. It is shameful for a scientist to do so.' Three days later the other sat in the same chair and said, 'George, you are sabotaging our outer space program. You ought to be run out of Washington."' See Harvard Alumni Bulletin , Vol. 62 (May 7, 1960), p. 597."True strength and lasting prestige will come from the richness, variety, and depth of a nation's total program.... We should insist on a space program that is in balance with our other vital endeavors in science and technology and that does not rob them because they are currently less spectacular. In the long run we can weaken our science and technology and lower our international prestige by frantically indulging in unnecessary competition and prestige-motivated projects." See James R. Killian, Jr., "Making Science a Vital Force in Foreign Policy" (a paper delivered to the Dallas Council on World Affairs, Dallas, Texas, Sept. 23, 1960)]. Even among the scientists in the space community -- who might seem to have the most to gain from space activities -- there is some concern as to whether an"all-out space effort" is in the best interests of science and the nation. While this concern is related in part to the anticipated costs of space activities, there is also a feeling that continued excessive attention to space may blind the policy makers to the compelling needs and opportunities in other physical and social sciences. 4/

The second problem involves the proper integration and articulation of the space effort's role with other national goals. If international competition is a major reason for space activities, it is argued that they should be much more closely coordinated with other national policies: if, for example, we insist that our space program is for peaceful purposes, every effort must be made to insure that this image is not embarrassed.

Each of the arguments and concerns discussed above has a number of important implications. As a whole they suggest that, if the space effort has potentials for benefiting mankind under various broad sets of circumstances, the potentials and circumstances need to be explicated in the interest of better planning of space activities in concert with other worth while and expensive public service activities. This is especially important in a nation such as the United States, where policy is sensitive to the attitudes of the various publics. For some of the questions posed, systematic study can perhaps at the most indicate that opinions on a subject are, in fact, only opinions; thus space projects based on them should be undertaken with the full understanding that neither history nor psychology guarantees the outcome prophesied, no matter how high the source of the opinions. Background research useful for such an evaluation would determine:

An especially worthy aspect of this problem entails such questions as, these: What factors historically have entered into support or rejection of new ideas or technologies? What was and wasn't appreciated about the potentialities or lack of them in the innovation and under what personal and social circumstances did this occur? (For example, what were the roles of factors such as physical environment, politics, personalities, limited systems analysis capabilities, insufficient communications to decision makers, and national goals?) In what ways are previous innovations and the social context in which they developed or were rejected comparable with present space innovations and their social contexts?**

In addition, systematic examination of the arguments summarized above should be undertaken to:

The broad problems posed imply that research is also necessary to:

Examine the nature of decision making needed at appropriate levels to develop methods for coordinating space policy and national. policy for the benefit of both (See Chapter 8 for more detailed research recommendations on this problem).

Special Publics

In estimating public attitudes, it is necessary to take into account the possibly differing values of various specific groups in the society n9[See Clyde and Florence R. Kluckhohn, "American Culture: Generalized Orientations and Class Patterns" (paper presented at the seventh meeting of the Conference on Science,'Philosophy, and Religion in Their Relation to the Democratic Way of Life, held at the international House of the University of Chicago on September 9, 10, and 11, 1946); published in Lyman Bryson, Louis Finkelstein, and Robert Morrison MacIver, eds., Conflicts of Power in Modern Culture , Harper (1947)]. The emphases and perspectives of the "military," for instance, tend to differ from those of the "scientists" and the "politicians," which in turn differ from each other. Not all values held by a group are unique to it, and within a group are subgroups and individuals whose attitudes differ in some degree from the general position; nevertheless, there is likely to be sufficient cohesiveness that identifies the group as a group. Thus it is reasonable to expect that space activities differently affect and are differently affected by such "special publics" n10["There may be occasional limiting conditions under which mass communications may produce a unanimous effect. There are also times in which the 'deviant cases' may be so few as not to be of practical importance. The more important the issue, however, the less likely is the effect to approach unanimity, because of the public's stronger interest in and knowledge of the problem. Therefore, the present status of communication research indicates that any study of the impact of the mass media must be one of the demography of effect -- the relative distribution of effects throughout the population. The major job of charting the appropriate population parameters remains to be done." See Raymond A. Bauer and Alice H. Bauer, "American Society and the Mass Media of Communication" (to be published in the Journal of Social Issues early in 1961), P. II-9 of dittoed copy. Data indicating differential public responses to space activities can be found in: Donald N. Michael, "Man in Space: What SR's Readers Think About It," Saturday Review , Vol. 42 (April 4, 1959), pp. 60-63, and Donald N. Michael, "Sputniks and Public Opinion: The Myth of 'Impact," Air Force Magazine/Space Digest , Vol. 43 (June 1960), pp. 72-75; and in Raymond A. Bauer, "Executives Probe Space," Harvard Business Review , Vol. 38 (September-October 1960), pp. 6-15]. There is also evidence that both the leadership which makes decisions and that which influences decisions tend at times to separate specific groups from the "general public" and act as if certain values and attitudes were associated with them n11[Detailed studies of congressional susceptibility to imposing values and attitudes on population groups are found in Lewis A. Dexter, "Congressmen and the People They Listen Tot' (dittoed), Communications Program D/56-18 Center for International Studies (1956), prepared for and available from 14N201, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, Massachusetts].

To the extent that planning and policies for space activities or their implications actually consider the attitudes of special publics, informal estimates of the constitution of such groups and of their opinions should be supplemented by research intended:

The special publics discussed below are among those presently believed to
have special significance for various aspects of the space program.

The space community

As might be expected, many of the scientists and engineers associated with government and private space activities are enthusiastic about them. There are others, however, whose disillusionment and cynicism have impressed observers; personally and professionally preoccupied with their work, they nevertheless feel alienated from the world they are creating -- because they believe it will be used "as politicians and promoters see fit," whether or not the use is appropriate to what they believe to be its significance n12[The following personal reactions to elements in the manipulation of the space program have been variously noted by the scientists and engineers involved, as seeming to them to contribute to the resentment and disillusion : What they felt to be the disproportionate amount of publicity and spectacular promotion given to space activity efforts, "by self-seeking politicians or entrepreneurs who want to use space to advance their own interests." These interests are believed to have little to do with the professed interest in space exploration. 2. They felt that many of the statements made about the future of general space activities and specific space projects are based on ignorance -- sometimes willful -- of the facts, in particular, the ignorance of the tremendous difficulties involved in bringing even the simplest space activity to fruition. 3. They despaired -- given government funding methods -- of receiving the systematic long-range financial support necessary to bring to fruition within a reasonable time many of the projects which they feel can be accomplished, given such support. 4. They had sensed ambiguity in the relationship between NASA and the military services which seems to them to belie the "pious protests" of a civilian space program separate from the military program. The compromises and conflicts are seen as frustrating to both the military and the civilian effort. 5. The scientists in particular sensed pressure on them not to fail, whereas the traditional role of the scientist includes honorable failure in the quest for knowledge. Given the pressures of corporate profits, publicity, and national status, however, failure is not easily acceptable; moreover, exciting ideas ate sometimes not explored because 6. The disillusioned individuals usually admit that they are geared to respect a world which is based on their types of goals and their methods for reaching them, and that it is practically a professional tradition to dislike and distrust those whom they perceive as manipulating situations for the sake of expediency].

No systematic study has been made of such factors, but the frequency with which the 'subject has occurred in informal conversations between observers and members of the space community indicates that negative attitudes are not rare. it should be known how widespread such attitudes may be, at what levels of decision making and creativity they occur most often, and what other factors may be involved. It should also be learned to what extent these attitudes might be known to or shared by students planning careers in space fields; if they were found to be prevalent yet not deterring, this might indicate that the new recruits for space activities have a different set of values than those typical of the engineers and scientists heretofore involved.

The more intensely reacting members of the present engineering and scientific personnel, perhaps including some of the more imaginative, might very well. leave the field for other more satisfying areas; already there is evidence in many areas of science of the arrival of the "gentleman scientist" n13["The individual is having a harder and harder time finding a place for himself in science; and, though this is rationalized as an inevitable development that comes with the growth of science and its practice by groups, many recognize that this emphasis on smooth working relationships in happy laboratories may be changing the notion of knowledge at any price to knowledge as it is convenient and comfortable for the scientist." See Bernice T. Biduson, "The Changing Self-Images of the Research Scientist" (paper presented at the American Psychological Association Meetings, September 1959, Cincinnati, Ohio)]. Whether or not the loss of these dissatisfied personnel or the influx of changed values with new personnel would change the quality of space activities needs careful study n14["We do not yet understand the creativity of groups well enough to say that quantity (number of groups, amount Olf support, structured competition, i.e., all organizationally manipulated) cannot approximate the results of quality (individual talent plus professional motivation). Perhaps the space effort does lose something immediate if the 'best' people choose to pursue different interests, or even the same interests in a different way. While it is true that the disenchantment and cynicism of scientists may affect recruitment and creativity on an individual basis, this may not be true on an organizational level, and may have desirable consequences for the 'balance of power' relationships among elite groups in the society." (Correspondence with Dr. Herbert E. Krugrnan, Director of Market Research, Raymond Loewy Associates)].

Many studies show that people filling particular roles have different ideas of their roles and the roles of others than do people filling other roles n15[For a related discussion see Chapter 6, section on the role of the science adviser. Also see Robert K. Merton, "Bureaucratic Structure and Personality," Social Theory and Social Structure , Free Press (1949), pp. 151-160; Harry C. TriAndis, "Differential Perception of Certain Jobs and People by Managers, Clerks, and Workers in Industry," Journal of Applied Psychology , Vol. 43 (August 1959), pp. 221-225]. Thus there is every reason to believe that, among other pertinent space community people, as well as outsiders, there is ignorance of or confusion about the attitude situation described here; similarly there is every reason to believe that the dissatisfied scientists and engineers within the community are not fully aware of the purposes and roles of those they disparage, So long as the situation is left formally unexamined and not brought to the attention of all concerned it will be difficult for all individuals and groups involved to base their actions and understanding on valid-assessments of the attitudes and values of each other. It appears worth while then to conduct studies to determine:

Present and future astronauts

The attitudes of the men now training as astronauts in the Mercury program and their perception of the attitudes held toward them and their efforts will have important implications for their training, their ultimate performance capabilities, and thereby for the selection and training of future astronauts. (The public's reactions to "man in space" are discussed later in this chapter.) Further information is much needed on the relation of attitudes and values to aspirations and fulfillment of performance requirements in this very special situation. The kind of understanding that would be derived from studying the values and attitudes of the first group of astronauts over time as they move through and beyond the Mercury program will also be of use to future astronaut programs. Thus it is important to study:

The non-space science community

Conversations with natural and social scientists and science administrators indicate a range of reactions to space activities: some scientists are delighted with them as tools for and areas of research, some are indifferent, some are hostile. Future space activities will be partly dependent on scientists in universities and other institutions for ideas as well as for the kind of supporting approval that will encourage competent men to contribute to the space effort n16[Richard L. Meier and others have pointed out that all successful machine" science projects very quickly use up available require for their efficient operation national and, eventually, international participation both for research ideas and data the past, this phenomenon has been observed in connection accelerators, computer facilities, radio telescopes, etc. It is the same situation will arise with space research, especially capacity increases into the thousands of pounds range]. It will thus be important to discover how to use most effectively the existing enthusiasms among non-space scientists, but there appears to be an even more pressing need to discover and assess the reasons for the expressed indifference and hostility n17[Various factors that were suggested by members of the non-space science community as accounting for unfavorable or indifferent attitudes are listed below. The relative importance assigned to them varied. 1. Some dislike the flamboyant public relations and propaganda associated with space activities. (E.g., Dr. Joseph Kaplan, as quoted by Dick Turpin in "Space Probes Need Publicity," Los Angeles Times, March 7, 1960, has said: "As a scientist, I am chagrined to have to face the realization that propaganda is as important as it is today in world politics." See also James S. Hanrahan," Negative Reactions to the Age of Space"--especially, pp. 4-7-- American Rocket Society publication 1191-60. And in the words of the present administrator of NASA:"There seems to be a contest going on in this country in which substantial numbers of people are attempting to outdo each other in predicting exotic accomplishments in space in the next few years. In my opinion, there is need for more common sense and good
technical judgment to be injected into this picture." From an address by Dr. T. Keith Glennan to the 4th USAF-BMD Symposium on Missiles and Space Technology, Los Angeles, Aug. 24, 1959.) 2. Some dislike affiliation with the military -- and regardless of what may be said by NASA and the White House, they feel space is chiefly a military activity. 3. Many are committed to research funded through sources which would not permit a shift in their programs to relate them to space activities. Moreover, those with good and continuing support and those hoping to get such support from their present sponsors have no motivation to abandon their commitments. 4. Many for whose work space probes might be useful in one way or another prefer to depend instead on techniques more familiar to them. 5. Some have not lost the feeling that space activity is science fiction and therefore not a proper area of attention for a serious scientist with a serious research program. 6. Planning and launching a research package for a space probe usually takes a long time, perhaps years, and because of the small supply of rockets and the demand for them there is no assurance of when, if ever, it will get off the ground. Some scientists are not prepared to risk their careers in an activity with coordinating elements so far out of their control. 7. Some resent the amount of money expended on space activities, a fraction of which, they feel, would accomplish much more if it were put into their own earth-based activities. 8. Some feel that space activities should be planned in close coordination with pertinent earth-bound activities; until this is done they doubt that the first interest of space is truly science. 9. Some are repelled by the big business-big money approach. While generally they know that some scientific activities do require large amounts of money, the promotional efforts that seem to be considered necessary to insure the money are incompatible with their image of science and the way research should be conducted. 10. Some resent what they believe to be willful confusion of science with engineering. They insist that rocket design and rocket launchings are engineering and that calling them science degrades science].

At present, it is not clear how extensively these attitudes are held and under what personal and operating circumstances they predominate. Nor is it clear what could be done to make space activities more compatible with the values and attitudes of those reluctant to participate in them -or whether efforts should be made to reduce this reluctance to participate in space until the nature and extent of the reluctance, and thereby its significance, are better understood. Thus, it is most desirable that studies be undertaken to determine:

(The last recommendation refers to that important implication of space activities noted earlier in this chapter -- the opportunity they afford social. scientists for research on the effects of spectacular yet continuing events on the attitudes. values, and behavior of members of various societies -- both before the events and after them n18[See Donald N. Michael, "Man-into-Space: A Tool and Program for Researching the Social Sciences," American Psychologist , Vol. 12 (June 1957), pp. 324-328]. The fact that space events can be anticipated by informed personnel before they become known to the general public enhances possibilities for (1) the sort of controlled experiments usually not available to the historian or social scientist, (2) base line studies, and (3) judging value and attitude changes in the light of the base line studies and the larger context of events. There is an excellent chance that theoretical insights into the processes of social change can thus be increased substantially. Since such insights would be invaluable for anticipating the implications of space activities for mankind, it would be desirable for the NASA social science research facility to bring these special opportunities for fundamental and applied research on social change to the attention of the social science community as soon as possible.

Business executives

The attitudes of business executives as influenced by space activities may well have important implications for the direction and intensity of space activities and, to some extent, for business philosophy and practice. Information about these attitudes and the values underlying them is found in a survey directed by Raymond A. Bauer of the Harvard Graduate School of Business Administration for the Harvard Business Review n19[Raymond A. Bauer, "Executives Probe Space," Harvard Business Review, Vol. 38 (September-October 1960), pp. 6-15]. The study is also valuable for showing where further research is necessary in this area. (Only a brief summary of the findings is provided here, but a detailed report on the survey, its findings, and the recommended research is given in Appendix A (to be found at the end of the Footnote Volume).

According to the survey, the impact of recent technological advances appears to have made executives extremely reluctant to conclude that anything is impossible, and they questioned only the most speculative of the possible benefits from space exploration. The majority felt that projects such as longrange weather forecasting, improved communications, and tangible byproducts of research were very likely to "pay off. However, the responses gave very little indication of either the significance or stability of attitudes, and since the approving support evinced could have been based on generalized impressions rather than specific knowledge, it might wither if project results were slow in coming. Older executives, particularly, seemed less caught up by the romance and adventure of space and more reluctant to spend money on space programs.

The respondents were able to distinguish between civilian and military space objectives, but did not do as well in specifying which existing programs were civilian and which military. What distinctions were made probably did not reflect detailed knowledge of the actual differences between the two objectives, for not many of even the most enthusiastic executives were completely informed on this subject.

Five possible reasons for or advantages of supporting the space program were ranked in this order-. (1) pure science research and gaining of knowledge; (2) control of outer space for military and political reasons; (3) tangible economic payoff and research results for everyday life on earth; (4) meeting the challenge and adventure of new horizons; (5) winning the prestige race with the Soviet Union. However, there did not seem to be a clear distinction in the minds of the respondents between "pure science" and "control of outer space."

Considerable willingness was indicated to grant the civilian space program more funds than the amount it was assumed to be already getting. A preponderant majority of the executives gave space research priority over a cut in taxes, though expenditures for health and education took precedence over space expenditures. Many thought that the program needed to be stepped up and, in general, that more could be done with the resources already committed. It was evident that respondents hoped that private industry would have a role in the space program, but many of the comments about this were more wistful than confident.

The generally favorable attitude revealed toward a civilian, rather than a military, space effort needs additional scrutiny. Is the attitude based on an evaluation of the relative potency or efficiency of the two programs, or does it indicate a preference for nonmilitary space research? The optimism about space activities also needs examination. Is it the product of an unbounded faith in science, of past experience with R&D payoffs, or what? Will practical R&D benefits be needed to reinforce the optimism and the implied support? These questions are typical of others that need to be answered before the implications of business executives' opinions become clear. Research, then, would be desirable to determine, for example;

Children

Children born the year of Sputnik I will vote within the twenty-year period encompassed by this study; those born a few years before that will, within this time period, be launching on careers. Their childhood impressions of space and its implications may have strong effects on their career choices and adult attitudes toward space activities.

For the adult, the perception and interpretation of new events, objects and ideas is filtered through a residue of values, beliefs, and experiences representing a lifetime of familiarity with the old. For children, the new is more real, since there is less interpretive background to help define initial and spontaneous perceptions. Thus children are the major carriers of change; what they "see" or remember will be remolded over time, but nothing can remove the underpinnings of initially more literal perceptions n21["For an adult to know that other adults are all talking About and reading about space is not the same as for the child to know this. He sees adults taking it seriously (regardless of what they say about it). When we listened to Buck Rogers we believed it was the 25th Century and it had no expectancy value. Today it's real, but what is real for the adults who say so may be quite different for the child who perceives it that way truly." (Correspondence with Dr. Herbert Krugman.)]. Even the four-year-old, however, is already a "socialized animal," reflecting many characteristic adult attitudes, and the freedom to see a given subject area through fresh eyes operates less and less as the child grows older. Therefore, since the attitudes of children toward space ought to provide much insight, especially if they can be rechecked at various periods of the child's growth, it would be wise to begin studies on very young children as soon as possible. Since values start young and in primitive enough form to be readily observable to research, such studies are practicable n22[For interview techniques with children, see Eugene L. Hartley and Dorothy C. Krugman, "Note on Children's Social Role Perception," Journal of Psychology , Vol. 26 (October 1948), pp. 399-405, For learning theory applied to development of values, see Herbert E. Krugman and Eugene L. Hartley, "Studies in the Development of Consumer Tastes" (scheduled for publication in Public Opinion Quarterly in the spring of 1961)]. A special purpose of the research would be to detect both the inner and outer factors that contribute to the eventual adult's attitudes and behavior in support or nonsupport of space activities and to his perception of the world as influenced by pace activities n23["Here in a ten year project, or less, we will see the most cogent indicators of value (political, social, etc., consequences of space activities -- and we will see them in process. We need only a handful of schools for collection of longitudinal data, and the Purdue Young People's Opinion Poll (high school and college opinions) for our national cross-checks." (Correspondence with Dr. Herbert Krugman.)].

Research, then, would be desirable to determine:

Possible Implications for the General Public

Exactly when and how the divergencies in opinion and attitude that mark off one special public from another decrease to the extent that the members of a large number of such groups can then be referred to as the "general public" is indeterminable -- and probably never does happen in fact. Nevertheless, there are many situations in which a fair degree of unanimity rather than divergence at least seems observable, and while the concept of a general public may be only a semantic myth, it is certainly a convenient one, and especially so to spokesmen, planners, and decision makers. This section, then, discusses implications and attitudes that have been assumed by spokesmen
concerning space activities to have applicability to wide groupings of special publics.

Public interest in and commitment to space activities

Many strong statements have been made about the degree of public knowledge of, interest in, and commitment to space activities for peaceful uses, but there is good reason to believe the situation is much more complicated than many of the statements imply n24[The following discussions illustrate these points; Donald N. Michael,"Sputniks and Public Opinion: The Myth of 'Impact ," Air Force Magazine/Space Digest , Vol. 43 (June 1960), pp. 72-75; Stephen B. Withey,"Sputnik ... Some Consequences, Expectations, and Attitudes," Survey Research Center, University of Michigan (mimeographed; January 1958); Stephen B. Withey, J. M. McLeod, and J. Swinehart, "Satellites, Science and the Public: A Report of a National Survey on the Public impact of Early Satellite Launchings," Survey Research Center, University of Michigan (February 1959); Stephen B. Withey, "Public Opinion about Science and Scientists," Public Opinion Quarterly , Vol. 23 (Autumn 1959), pp. 382-388; and R. C. Davis and Stephen B. Withey , The Public Impact of Science in the Mass Media , Survey Research Center, University of Michigan (1958)]. In the first place, questionnaires and surveys of public attitudes about space programs show that various parts of the public tend to be selective in their attention to the subject and seem to be variously affected by the perceived military implications and the public relations releases of military, industrial, and other special interest groups, as well as by specific events n25[A parallel and revealing situation may be found in the disorganized nature of early information and attitudes about nuclear energy. See E. Douvan, A. Walker, B. Darsky, and Stephen B. Withey , The Impact of Atomic Energy on Society , Survey Research Center, University of Michigan (1953), and B. Fisher, C. Metzner, and B. Darsky, Public Response to Peacetime Uses of Atomic Energy , Vols. 1 and 2, Survey Research Center, University of Michigan (1951). For a discussion of the difficulty of separating military and peaceful uses, see E. Douvan and Stephen B. Withey, "Some Attitudinal Consequences of Atomic Energy," Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science , Vol. 290 (November 1053), P. 108]. Base line data are very much needed on the state of present public knowledge of space activities and the associated attitudes. Thus research is recommended to explore:

Related to this general matter is the widespread tendency to assume that the direction and intensity of mass media reporting have attributable affects on attitudes. There is also the assumption that the media reflect, in the amount of attention they give to a subject, the interests of their audiences. However, the precise effects of the mass media on attitudes and values and the extent to which they reflect or generate interest are still not well understood, despite the amount of research conducted on these problems n26["... despite many years of discussion and many pages of writing, the various roles of the press are not clear. There seem to be at least two major influences which characterize the activity of the press. First, the press perhaps more than any other agency, helps to create as well as reflect the environment in which daily interaction...occurs. Second, while the situation is obvious with respect to totalitarian countries, in which the press is government controlled, it seems highly likely that in other societies the press has also emerged as an actual adjunct to official policy making structures and processes." Richard C. Snyder and James A. Robinson, National and International Decision Making (to be published by the Institute for International Order, New York City, early in 1961), P. 110 of prepublication draft. See also Ithiel de Sola Pool and Irwin Shulman, "Newsmen's Fantasies, Audiences, and Newswriting ," Public Opinion Quarterly , Vol. 23 (Summer 1959), pp. 145-158; and Wilbur L. Schramm, ad., One Day in The World's Press: Fourteen Great Newspapers on a Day of Crisis , November 2, 1956, Stanford University Press (1959)] (This lack of understanding results in part from a dearth of the before-andafter studies on important events that foreknowledge about space activities make possible.) Because it is important that decision makers, policy planners, and pertinent attentive publics have more precise information about the role of the mass media in regard to space activities, further study is recommended on:

Moreover, careful study is indicated of the proper and effective role for the public in regard to policy on a subject as complicated as space; given the many alternative needs on which public funds might be expended, this question is of particular interest. Thus, it would be desirable to examine:

Optimism and over-optimism

Spokesmen for space activities often try to generate optimism in their audiences by dwelling on the imminence of vast space efforts and the abundant rewards to be expected from them. There has also been an unceasing stream of public relations releases and promotional statements (often translated by the mass media as news) about the glamorous and fantastic events that will happen in space in the near future, and what these will mean for the public.

Public optimism is assumed to be desirable, in that it should generate support for the space program in general. However, should promotion efforts lead to over-optimism, support attitudes might easily not be lasting if the difficulties inherent in space efforts have not at the same time been appreciated enough to make the failure of specific projects understandable. As space efforts become more grandiose and the potential consequences of payoff more exciting, failure will have even more possibility of creating general disillusionment . If enough glamorous projects are not successful at the time they are supposed to be, earlier efforts to imply their ease and imminence may boomerang: the public state of mind may well make it difficult to obtain future funds for the more expensive efforts, which must compete in one way or another with other public programs for money, manpower, and ideas n28[Some anticipated space projects will in effect involve building a large ship on end at the launching site. The contemplated Nova rocket, for example, would stand about as tall as the Washington monument and probably cost upwards of a billion dollars. Our economy has had no peacetime experience with this kind of "one-shot" activity. Normally in peacetime we finance either many relatively cheap, and therefore disposable, items or an expensive item -- such as an ocean liner -- which can be used over and over again. A really big rocket represents a new type of investment, since in the nature of rocket technology the first shot may fail. Thus there is the not unlikely specter of several years of publicized effort and several billion dollars blowing up when only 100 yards off the pad. Can a society used to traditional modes of investment revise its values so that such a spectacular and expensive "test" would not produce strong pressures to forego further investments of the sort?].

On the other hand, it may be that a certain degree of over-optimism is necessary to sustain public interest in and support of space activities in the face of project frustrations and failures. However, these discussed effects are mere conjecture, since exact knowledge simply does not at present exist of whether the public is optimistic, pessimistic, or indifferent about the future of the space effort. Thus, to anticipate and ameliorate adverse consequences of over-optimism and to make effective use of optimism, the following questions need systematic study:

Broadened horizons

It is said that man has an insatiable will to progress, to climb the mountain "because it is there," and therefore to explore space to the utmost because he is driven by the nature of his being to do so. As he thus explores, his social and psychological horizons will necessarily be broadened by the magnitude and challenges of the universe in contrast to his former earth-bound preoccupations herein, it is claimed, lies one of the great implications of space activities for attitudes and values.

In assessing these claims it should be recalled that there are many societies in which the traditional way of doing things is the proper way of life; even in our own society, with its emphases on change and on progress, it is common for potentially useful innovations to be blocked by traditional perspectives n30[For example, an excellent summary of opposition to changes in transportation is found in Wilfred Owen, The Community Objects (a
report prepared for the Air Force Association, 1954)]. Not all people here or abroad will be or are committed to space exploration because it is "challenging" or represents "progress"; among those who are interested in meeting challenges, a good number will no doubt decide that they prefer to expend money and effort on challenges more immediately and intimately related to their own needs and those of the earthbound human community n31[It is significant, perhaps, that among those people today who would be spoken of as having broad horizons, there is questioning regarding the appropriate allocation of resources to meet these many challenges on the horizon. For example, 11 ... certainly there are scientific problems of overwhelming importance that can be solved for a small fraction of a single Atlas or Titan fizzle. Is it possible that, in the long run, we'll be better off relative to the Russians to channel expenditures into other fields? ... and what about cancer research, studies in geriatrics, urban redevelopment -- even aid to India?" (From a speech by Robert J. Low, Executive Officer, High Altitude Observatory of the University of Colorado, entitled "International and Economic Aspects of the Space Age," delivered to the National Conference on Aviation Education at the Air Force Academy, Denver, March 25, 1960.) And Dr. George B. Kistiakowsky, in a speech entitled "A Decade of Progress," delivered to the National Science Foundation, May 12th, 1960, said: "Nor need we look beyond our own shores to view unreached horizons of science. Our hospitals are overcrowded with men, women, and children emotionally unfit to move among their fellow men. Killers and cripplers of men such as cancer, arthritis, heart disease, muscular dystrophy, all await the day when science will marshal still greater forces against them. Rich deposits of minerals and food await extraction from the sea, while the sea awaits desalination in quantities large enough to open new lands to mankind. The atom awaits fusion, photosynthesis to be harnessed, new galaxies to be discovered. Science itself awaits the day when it will be reunited with music, art, and literature into harmonious culture to move together, toward the achievement of excellence in our lives." See also a review by John Rader Platt (Department of Physics, University of Chicago) of Basic Research in the Navy (a report to the Secretary of the Navy by the Naval Research Advisory Committee ), Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists , Vol. 16 (June 1960), P. 221, which reads in part, "What we need... is a 100-fold redirection of money and competent research scientists into other long-neglected areas of basic research and invention. Areas where 100-fold may mean 100 scientists, to balance a little bit the hordes already working on space and fusion. Areas related to transportation, housing, textiles, contraceptives, Operations Analyses of local government mechanisms, and so on; where high technology sees no dividend and has not even a toehold. Survival is also, like technology, a many-factor problem; and for optimum success, it also needs a distribution of research effort among all the factors, not just the well-advertised military and industrial factors."].

However, certain ideas related to space activities may even now be contributing in some quarters to changing horizons. For example, under the impetus of the new but frequent claims that space exploration is a fine example of man's most worthy aspiration -- the accumulation of knowledge per se -- a public attitude favorable to scholarship in general may be generated. Acceptance of long planning periods for space activities and the possibility of international space programs may stimulate attitudes favorable to multinational cooperation and systematic planning in other areas as well. And perhaps the belief that space activities must inevitably result in broadened horizons and perspectives will encourage a pattern of responses which will produce a "self-fulfilling prophecy" n32[See Robert K. Merton, "The Self-Fulfilling Prophecy," Social Theory and Social Structure , Free Press (1949), pp. 179-195.]. In any case, it would be desirable to anticipate the effect of possible new perspectives or the lack of them as a prelude to planning for the effective meshing of space activities and programs with other socially important activities. This will require research:

The implications of a discovery of extraterrestrial life

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Recent publicity given to efforts to detect extraterrestrial messages via radio telescope has popularized -- and legitimized -- speculations about the impact of such a discovery on human, values n33[See, for example, the many speculations on project Ozma. One such "Project Ozma Begins Operation at National Radio Astronomy Observatory," National Science Foundation Press Release NSF-60-120, April 12, 1960]. It is conceivable that there is semiintelligent life in some part of our solar system or highly intelligent life which is not technologically oriented, and many cosmologists and astronomers think It very likely that there is intelligent life in many other solar systems. While face-to-face meetings with it will. not occur within the next twenty years (unless its technology is more advanced than ours, qualifying it to visit earth), artifacts left at some point in time by these 'life forms might possibly be discovered through our space activities on the Moon, Mars, or Venus. If there is any contact to be made during the next twenty years it would most likely be by radio -- which would indicate that these beings had at least equaled our own technological level.

An individual's reactions to such a radio contact would in part depend on his cultural, religious, and social background, as well as on the actions of those he considered authorities and leaders and their behavior, in turn would in part depend on their cultural, social, and religious environment n34[The positions of the major American religious denominations, the Christian sects, and the Eastern religions on the matter of extraterrestrial life need elucidation. Consider the following:"The Fundamentalist (and anti-science) sects are growing apace around the world and, as missionary enterprises, may have schools and a good deal of literature attached to them. One of the important things is that, where they are active, they appeal to the illiterate and semiliterate (including, as missions, the preachers as well as the congregation) and can pile up a very influential following in terms of numbers. For them, the discovery of other life -- rather than any other space product -- would be electrifying. Since the main ones among these sects are broadly international in their scope and are, in some places, a news source, the principal distributors of mass media materials, an important source of value interpretation, a central social institution, an educational institution, and so on, some scattered studies need to be made both in their home centers and churches and their missions, in relation to attitudes about space activities and extraterrestrial life. additionally, because of the international effects of space activities and, in the event of its happening, of the discovery of extraterrestrial life, even though space activities are not internationalized, it is very important to take account of other major religions. So, for example, Buddhist priests are heavily politically engaged in Ceylon. So, too, in Burma, many politically active men (including U Nu) are professedly active Buddhists. The Burmese convoked the Sixth Great Buddhist Council which brought together a huge international group of Buddhist lay and ecclesiastical leaders and it seems likely that -- at least in the case of Theravada Buddhism -- with the wide participation of modern-educated, politically active men, Buddhist beliefs and principles are being reinterpreted. We need, and we do not have, good observations or interpretive statements about the possible repercussions of space activities, etc., for these Buddhists." (Correspoidence with Dr. Rhoda Metraux. The observations are based on field work with the Montserrat Anthropological Expedition, 1953-55., field work in Haiti, and examination of sectarian literature.) If plant life or some subhuman intelligence were found on Mars or Venus, for example, there is on the face of it no good reason to suppose these discoveries, after the original novelty had been exploited to the fullest and worn off, would result in substantial changes in perspectives or philosophy in large parts of the American public, at least any more than, let us say, did the discovery of the coelacanth or the panda. It might
well be that this sort of discovery would simply not be sufficiently salient for most people most of the time to cause any noticeable shift in philosophy or perspective. If super intelligence is discovered, the results become quite unpredictable. it is possible that if the intelligence of these creatures were sufficiently superior to ours, they would choose to 'nave little if any contact with us. On the face of it, there is no reason to believe that we might learn a great deal from them, especially if their physiology and psychology were substantially different fro)ii ours, It has been speculated that, of all groups, scientists and engineers might be the most devastated by the discovery of relatively superior creatures, since these professions are most clearly associated with the mastery of nature, rather than with the understanding and expression of man. Advanced understanding of nature might vitiate all our theories at the very least, if not also require a culture and perhaps a brain inaccessible to earth scientists. Nature belongs to all creatures, but manes aspirations, motives, history, attitudes, etc., are presumably the proper study of man. It would also depend, of course, on how their intelligence )ere expressed, it does not necessarily follow that they would excel technologically. It is perhaps interesting to note that when asked what the consequences of the discovery of superior life would be, an audience of Saturday Review readership chose, for the most part, not to answer the question at all, in spite of their detailed answers to many other speculative questions. Perhaps the idea is so foreign that even this readership was bemused by it. But one can speculate, too, that the idea of intellectually superior creatures may be anxiety-provoking. Nor is it clear what would be the reactions to creatures of approximately equal and communicable intelligence to ours. What may perhaps present a particularly knotty philosophical problem, and one which would seem most clearly to have the potentials of profound repercussions for our values and attitudes and philosophies,could arise if we discovered a creature whose intelligence and behavior, by our standards, was indeterminate to the point that we were unable to decide whether or not it should be treated morally and ethically as if it were "a human being." Certainly, this could provide a continuing subject of controversy across and within various earth cultures; some people who had not otherwise speculated on these matters might gain a sense of the complexity of the universe. , For a convincing presentation of this idea, see Vercours, You Shall Know Them , Pocket Books (1955). On this general problem see Daniel C. Raible, "Rational Life in Outer Space?" America , Vol. 103 (Aug. 13, 1960), pp. 532-535;,Wolfgang D. Miller, "Religion in Space," Man Among the Stars, Criterion Books (1957) pp. 221-240; and "Oxnam Sees Space Conquest in 175 Years ," Washington Star , Jan. 4, 1960]. The discovery would certainly be front-page news everywhere; the degree of political or social repercussion would probably depend on leadership's interpretation of (1) its own role, (2) threats to that role, and (3) national and personal opportunities to take advantage of the disruption or reinforcement of the attitudes and values of others. Since leadership itself might have great need to gauge the direction and intensity of public attitudes, to strengthen its own morale and for decision making purposes, it would be most advantageous to have more to go on than personal opinions about the opinions of the public and other leadership groups.

The knowledge that life existed in other parts of the universe might lead to a greater unity of men on earth, based on the oneness of man or on the age-old assumption that any stranger is threatening Much would depend on what, if anything, was communicated between man and the other beings: since after the discovery there will be years of silence (because even the closest stars are several light years away, an exchange of radio communication would take twice-the number of light years separating our sun from theirs),the fact that such beings existed might become simply one of the facts of life but probably not one calling for action n35[Professor Jiri Nehnevajsa and Albert S. Francis of Columbia University, in April-June 1960, surveyed samples of about 100 legislators and 100 university students in both Brazil and Finland. The respondents were asked to indicate which of a series of circumstances they foresaw as changed by a series of developments, including some in space. (in what follows the figures are given in the following order: (1) Brazilian legislators and (2) students; (3) Finnish legislators and (4) students.) The discovery of civilized alien life was foreseen as increasing the chances for East-West reconciliation by 15, 11, 5, and 6 per cent of the respondents, and as increasing the chances of a third political force by 6, 6, 11, and 20 per cent of the respondents. Increased status quo and increased likelihood of disarmament accounted for most of the remaining scattered responses, being, respectively, 2, 5, 21, and 21 per cent, and 5, 7, 6, and 5 per cent. The remaining types of situations facing the world were seen as essentially unaffected by this event. (See Chapter 8, Note 58, for other details of this survey and for complete citation)]. Whether earthmen would be inspired to all-out space efforts by such a discovery is a moot question. Anthropological files contain many examples of societies, sure of their place in the universe, which have disintegrated when they have had to associate with previously unfamiliar societies espousing different ideas and different life ways; others that survived such an experience usually did so by paying the price of changes in values and attitudes and behavior.

Since intelligent life might be discovered at any time via the radio telescope research presently under way, and since the consequences of such a discovery are presently unpredictable because of our limited knowledge of behavior under even an approximation of such dramatic circumstances, two research areas can be recommended:

Implications of man in space

The evolving man-in-space program may already be having its impact on values and attitudes. Given the people involved and the necessary risks in the program, it is likely that there will continue to be value conflicts in various parts of the general public as well as in the groups which must make decisions about the direction and extent of future activities in this area.

The Mercury man.-in-space program has already received much comment in the media, which illustrates the kind of conflicts that can be expected. There have been favorable reports, as typified by the articles on the astronauts, their families, and their training n38[A series of articles on the astronauts began in the Sept. 14, 1959,issue of Life magazine]. There have been unfavorable statements about the "stunt" characteristics of the program and about its apparent tendency to emphasize the glamorous astronauts rather than the scientificand engineering aspects and problems of the project n39[See, for example, "Astronaut Plan Termed 'Stunt.' Bush Says Project Has Little Value -- Sees 'Confusion' in the Missile Program ," New York Times, April 7, 1960; and "DuBridge Blasts 'Space Idiots'; Calls for Downto- Earth Stories About Problems," Los Angeles Times , May 1, 1960, in which Lee DuBridge was quoted as saying also, "I believe even the Mercury Program, in spite of all the nauseating journalistic publicity about the astronauts, has now been converted into a needed research program." See also the editorial, "Don't Rush the Astronauts," Washington Post and Times Herald , Nov. 24, 1960.]. Many commentators have remarked that wives and children are assets to astronauts, who can thus still be considered "normal" Americans; at the same time, their military status permits them to take risks which large portions of the general public might not otherwise consider appropriate for family men. A leading anthropologist who has studied this problem says the astronauts are not models for -other women's husbands -- not one little bit .... Part of the feeling about space, which spreads right through the country, is women's objection to men's going there" n40[Women want men to stay at home now probably more than they have at any period in history. They need them more, They need them to look after the children and help build the house and do all sorts of things that they didn't use to need husbands for. They used to have other female relatives and neighbors to help, or not so many children. But now, they need husbands at home, and there is a tremendous objection to men going anywhere. Part of the feeling about space, which spreads right through the country, is women's objection to men's going there." See Margaret Mead, "The Newest Battle of the Sexes ," Air Force Magazine/Space Digest , Vol. 43 (July 1960), P. 78]. The actual astronaut launching may highlight the question of a man's responsibility to family versus his willingness to risk death in space. This and similar questions will. be resolved, probably not without emotional conflict, according to the particular personal and institutions values held by those involved in various aspects of the controversies.

Here again is an opportunity to conduct before-and-after research on the implications of innovations for attitudes and values. Studies preceding the launching can also provide a basis for better informing the public so that it can realistically appreciate both the accomplishments and difficulties of the program. It is recommended, then, that base line studies be begun as soon as possible to Determine the present knowledge of, beliefs and expectations about, and the values that underlie attitudes toward the Mercury program and the astronaut. These should be continuing studies so that the impact of events can be anticipated, evaluated, and planned for.**

If the Mercury program is successful it will be only a prelude to attempts to put man on the moon and some of the planets. Thus the implications of astronautic efforts, subsequent to Mercury, for attitudes and values should also be studied. Social observers have speculated that manned flight to the moon or Mars might re-stimulate the American frontier spirit, thereby supplying a new form of vicarious living for a large part of the public and perhaps inspiring some to participate in more challenging activities here on earth n41[Eric Larabee interprets the popularity of the "Western" and the "Private Eye" on TV as due to unconscious effort on the part of the viewer to bring the jungle back to the city; that is, to present man with the unexpected that he must confront and use his wits and his body to overcome. To the extent that space may provide a surrogate or vicarious frontier for people, it may be attractive in this sense too].

Although the physical requirements for an astronaut probably will be compatible with the preferred American image of masculinity, the psychological characteristics appropriate for long flights through space, alone or in compact quarters with others, may be quite incompatible. Indeed, the very rigors which the astronaut may have to withstand and the special techniques that may be used to make it possible for him to withstand them (such as hibernation or some form of drug treatment) may produce a great gap in the earthbound man's identification with the astronaut. To the average man who is increasingly embedded in the security and organization of urban life, the physical threat and the physical and psychic isolation implied in manned space activities may seem unpalatable and at a great emotional distance from the daily problems he finds challenging and interesting. Thus, the personalities of astronauts, the esoteric technical problems they solve, and the challenges they accept might become matters of indifference to the public, or, in one way or another, represent aspirations and ways of life that are undesirable n42[See Donald N. Michael, "Social Studies Must Go On to Find Out How To Keep Space Crews Content," Missiles and Rockets , Vol. 3 (April 1958), pp. 110-114; and Jiri Nehnevajsa, "Man in Space Means Men in Space: Some Consequences," American Rocket Society Reprint 969-959 (Nov. 17, 1959)]. This may be especially so for other nations whose values about "pioneering," "frontiers" and "conquest" may be different from ours. Since truly large man-in-space efforts will probably require international support, the states of mind in other nations will become important to the planning of programs for which we will need their contributions.

The possibility must be considered that, except for short trips -- and even these perhaps biologically or genetically suicidal -- man will not, after all, be able to go very far into space in the foreseeable- future. The weight of shielding necessary to protect him from heavy cosmic ray particles and the intense blasts of energy from solar flares (which are presently unpredictable) may make more than an occasional foray so expensive and unrewarding as to cancel out the advantages of studying space through man's first-hand experiences with it n43[For a recent popular summary of this situation see Walter Sullivan, "Satellite Shows Wide Ray Threat," New York Times , Nov. 27, 1960, p.l. At the present stage of knowledge, the effects of any one of most of the factors believed to be of major significance to man's biological and psychological survival in space can be estimated for an exposure period of
not more than thirty days. There is no adequate knowledge of the combined effects of these factors for any period of exposure. See "Life Sciences for Space Use," Aviation Week , Vol. 73 (Nov. 7, 1960), p. 67]. This situation could lead to extraordinary efforts to find a way to put man in space -- efforts not necessarily of optimum social use. It could also bring about an intensive development of robot equipment that could do man's exploring for him. Application of the robot technology to other endeavors might be extensive and carry with it all the moral, social, ethical, and economic problems and opportunities which have been explored by the more thoughtful science fiction writers.

If it should become necessary to accept the impossibility of first-hand experience in space, there may be important consequences for American values and aspirations. As a nation, we have come to believe ourselves conquerors of nature and equal to any task if we apply "/science." In recent years this confidence has appeared to be spectacularly justified. The discovery that man cannot for the foreseeable future go into space by any of the glamorous means so regularly predicted might so disrupt our self-confidence as to set off a chain of revisions in values which could either hinder or improve our capacity to deal maturely with our other problems.

Whether or not man will be able to study space at first hand in the next two decades depends on information not now available. Since the outcome might go either way, the effects of later man-in-space efforts on values and attitudes in general, as well as with regard to such space activities in particular, require research to: